The onchain derivatives exchange for electricity

Power, Accessible for Everyone.

In the AI and compute build-out, grids everywhere are under strain, and neither frontier labs nor households can manage what they consume. Grid Strategies puts U.S. demand up 16% by 2029; DOE and LBNL see data-centre use doubling or tripling by 2028.

Trading venues are closed to retail, and even professionals can't freely trade or directly hedge tail risk on today's primitive market structure.

Parabola turns that strain into something you can act on: an open exchange where anyone exposed to power, from a training campus to a household, can cap the hours that break their budget and trade the swings they can't consume around.

Three doors, one book →
01

Three doors. One book.

Hedge

Cap the hours that spike.

Bring your hourly load. Choose a strike. Buy a capped payout on every hour above it. Premium fixed up front, payout scales with how hot the day gets, and your maximum loss is the premium.

data centres · retailers · factories · storage
Open Hedge
Trade

Ten seconds. One curve.

Say where you think tomorrow's price lands and how sure you are. We turn that into a distribution and price it against ours. Where you're right, you make money. Your stake is the most you can lose.

everyone who pays a bill
Open Trade
Index

Published before. Scored after.

A daily probability curve for every hub we list, gate-tested before release, scored against the settled print, hash-chained so it can never be quietly revised. The mark nobody has to take on trust.

the reference everything is priced against
See the Index
Grids PJM live ERCOTMISOCAISONYISOISO-NESPPGBEU One engine, one curve per hub. A grid lists when its curve has a scored record.
02

Scored against what actually happened

Before you buy any protection you have to decide how much, and what it should cost. A calibration-tested probability is that input.

Published daily before the outcome is knowable, scored against the realized price the next morning. Three gates run before every publish; fail one and the curve does not go out.

Walk-forward · 365d · h=1 all gates pass
0.170
CRPS skill vs climatology, 365 days walk-forward
94.8%
of outcomes inside the 95% band
0.044
PIT KS distance, shape gate green
0.052
spike Brier vs 0.059 climatology
03

Built for the market that's coming

Power is the input to everything, its price is now a political issue, and the people paying for it have no instrument. The demand for a public market is already here. Only the venue is missing.

Distribution markets are a known primitive. Nobody has run one on a real commodity against a public, scored reference curve. That is the gap.

Nodal Exchange H1 2026 · PJM 2027/28 auction · June 2026 volumes
$176B
open interest in US power futures, 56% on one exchange, zero retail
$333
per MW-day: capacity at the price cap on the largest US grid, three years running
$44.8B
traded on Kalshi and Polymarket in one month. Neither lists electricity
43 days
our curve published, scored, unrevised
Now · live

The paper exchange.

Reference curve public and scored daily. Settlement engine solvency-audited. Hedge, Trade and Index doors open. Positions pre-funded, capped, deterministic.

first grid live
Next · institutional

Collateralized hedges.

Capped calls sized in MWh. Stablecoin escrow, settled on the grid print. First writers: batteries and generators. Curve hashes committed onchain.

grid by grid: ERCOT, MISO, CAISO, NYISO
Then · open venue

Protection for everyone.

Bill protection from a phone. Permissionless vaults on the sell side. Market prices supersede the house curve. Every new hub launches with its own scored record.

then Europe

Take back control of your power usage.

Open the exchange Size your tail